Fearless BlognosticationDownload file
We hysterians have enough trouble making sense of the past that we should know better than get into what’s going to happen tomorrow. The Ol’ Bloviator does know better, but he also knows better than to reach for that third beer, and it’s never stopped him yet. So here goes, the first-everCobbloviate Election Blognostication complete with a Download file">visual aid (Mash Link Above) constructed with much perspiration and profanity and courtesy of the fine folks at SmartDraw.com, who offered me a seven-day free trial on their product.
By way of comparison, where I give Oby the electoral nod, by 291 to 247' the folks at RealclearPolitics.com see it Obama338, McCain, 220
Obviously, I think Oby’s going to win, but, if you will indulge me in a football analogy, it’s going to be like going into the fourth quarter up by three touchdowns and only winning by a field goal.
Although before kickoff, you would have taken a three-point win as cause for a celebratory two-day drunk, after being so far ahead, your reaction to a significantly narrower victory margin is likely to be more subdued than you once imagined. Plus, you’ll have to listen to your opponent claim that he didn’t really lose, he just ran out of time. We’ll never know, of course, but JMac and his Demagogue Diva sidekick clearly closed some ground as the days wound down to a precious few, primarily by telling people that Oby was going to take hard-earned dollars away from folks who are still nowhere near the low end of his admittedly drooping threshold for tax hikes. (This would be the quadrennial hornswoggle wherein, chuckling slyly to themselves, the Repubs succeed in conning those who like to fancy themselves people of means into voting in the interests of the people who really are.) The fact that Oby’s ambiguous tax intentions, plus some good ol’ fashioned Hockey Mom hatemongering, may have cut into his margins, should not, however, detract in the least from the fact that, if he wins, he will have overcome as great a generic disadvantage as any presidential candidate could possibly have in this country. Even if he loses, he will have run one of the most brilliant presidential campaigns in American history.
By way of offering some explanation for the way my electoral map looks, here are a few state level rationalizations, that upon examination, will likely prove leaky as the proverbial sieve:
VIRGINIA—A Democratic presidential candidate hasn’t won here since 1964, but the state is about to elect its second Democratic senator, and I’m thinking the “Occupied South,” as my friend John Reed calls northern Virginia, is going to, as Doug Wilder says, make The “Old Dominion” look like the “New Dominion,” for this election at least.
My Pick: Oby’s OK, but JMac beats the spread.
NORTH CAROLINA—“Liddy” Dole hasn’t done a damn thing in her first term in the Senate, and she’s down five points in the latest poll even after running a commercial calling her Presbyterian-elder opponent “godless.” If Dole wins, may be ol’ Jesse ain’t really dead yet. If she loses, that just might make Hell hot enough for the old bastard. It seems foolish to think Dole could lose North Carolina while JMAC wins it, but that’s what the OB sees coming to pass.
My Pick: JMac wins a squeaker..
FLORIDAWhat can you say about a place where the Yankees live in the South? This is where Oby's "ground game" is supposedly strongest, but I think the "bubbi" crew down south is still ambivalent about him, while I'm pretty sure that that the jeans short ("jort") crew up in the Panhandle isn't ambivalent in the least. I may be wrong about all my picks, but this is the one where my confidence level is lowest.
My Pick: JMac, but iffy.
OHIO—This state has broken the hearts of too many Demo presidential candidates to count, and if the Bradley Effect is going to rear its ugly head, this is one of the most likely places in the country. Plus, there’s always the likelihood of polling-place shenanigans.
My Pick : McCain by a nose hair.
PENNSYLVANIA— The Bradley Effect might crop up here as well, especially with the state’s Republicans running a last-second Jeremiah Wright ad, but Oby’s lead has looked pretty solid in Pennsylvania for a good while, and I’m saying he’ll hang on to win, but by less than the current polls indicate.
My Pick: Oby in a squeaker.
MISSOURI—Been a long time for the Democrats here, too, and it’s going to be longer.
My Pick: JMAC by a little.
BLOVIATOR’S BONUS PICK:—Georgia senator Saxby “Chicken Hawk” Chambliss, who sat out Vietnam, gained his seat by impugning the patriotism of incumbent Democrat Max Cleland, who lost both legs and an arm in Vietnam. There’s much excitement in these parts that a Demo challenger might soon expel the Chicken Hawk from the hen house, and nobody would be happier to see it than yours very truly. However, it ain’t going to happen. Martin put on a tough, smart campaign, even if he did reportedly quote the Ol’ Bloviator at one of his fundraisers, but Chambliss is now running an ad saying “Jim Martin wants to help Barack Obama raise your taxes.” In Georgia, that message could get me elected. Nuff’ said.
So there you are. Comments are fully enabled, so sound off now or come back and mock me on Wednesday. I can take it, and, as you all know, I deserve it.
