Thank God it’s still football season. Otherwise, with the election finally over, I’m not sure what I would do with all the energy or attention I would otherwise be devoting to my day job. However, before I shift my gaze from politics to pigskins, I think a transitional debriefing would be therapeutic for us all. Unfortunately, I don’t have time to do this task justice because I really do have to do some honest-to-God, pay-check-earning work that absolutely demands my attention. Still, here are a few quick potshots, starting with a breakdown of my own blognostication of Monday last.
I was flat wrong about Florida, which I said at the time was my iffiest McCain pick. The poll numbers pretty much held up there, as they did in Ohio, which crossed me up by going Democratic for the first time since Moby Dick was a minnow, i.e., 1964, when Barry Goldwater was the GOP option. To show you that I didn’t try to take the easy route with my predictions, Missouri was called for my pick, Johnny Mac, at 9 a.m. on November 5, and the jury is still out in North Carolina, where Oby is up by roughly 12,000 votes.
I boldly prophesied that Tarheel voters would split their ballots by booting the odious Elizabeth Dole while going for JMac in a squeaker. Maybe not, but with roughly 50 percent of the vote, McCain ran 6 points ahead of the summarily rejected ED. (Speaking of ED, Viagra Bob better call the company for a re-stock, ‘cause she’s going to have a lot more time on her hands real soon.)
Here in Georgia, I was correct in pooh-pooh-ing Jim Martin’s chances (Bless His Heart) against Chicken Hawk Chambliss. This really terrific MSNBC site has some other interesting Georgia stories to tell. With 99 percent of the precincts in, it appears that at least, 375,000 more Georgians voted yesterday than in 2004. By my quick calculation, Black Georgians cast some 277,000 (nearly 75 percent) of those additional votes. As a result, blacks accounted for 30 percent of the total vote this year as opposed to 25 percent in 2004, while the white share fell from 70 to 65 percent. Obama got about the same portion (23 percent) of the white vote in Georgia as John Kerry did in 2004 but outpolled Kerry among black voters by 98 to 88 percent. Hence, though Johnny Mac claimed 53 percent of the state’s votes with a base well-nigh white as he is, at 46 percent Oby ran five points ahead of Kerry because he captured damn near every one of the 277,000 additional black votes cast in 2008.
There’ll be better numbers soon, and, I dare to hope, more time to crunch ‘em. In the meantime, let me share a couple of stellar comments posted in response to Monday’s pre-election blognostication. The first is just in from my learned friend, “Bo ‘Evil’ McWeevil” over yonder in Mississippi:
I'm glad I didn't read this post until Wednesday morn. Had Florida, Virginia, and Ohio gone for McCain it would have been a much different evening than it was. Different and worse. It was a remarkable night.
But what I want Prof. Blove to tell me now is what this new political marginalization of the South will mean. This is, after all, the first election since JFK that has seen the victory of a non-Republican or non-southerner. The Deep South has been kicked to the political curb, right? The long Dixification of American politics is over? We're back to the Midwest-as-dominant-political-region model now? 48 years is a long time.
Although the Ol’ Bloviator gently reminds Bo that he did not prophesy a McCain victory in Virginia, he salutes him for raising such a damn good question, one that deserves way more thought than O.B. has time or brain cells to give it just now. It does strike him, however, that marginalization in presidential elections ain’t exactly new to southerners. When the Democrats had Dixie in their grip, they took it for granted at election time, and when the Republicans took it over, they did the same thing. Maybe McCain campaigned in Mississippi, but I sure don’t remember seeing even his free-spending Neiman Marxist sidekick in these parts.
On the other hand, facing a genuine Democratic threat in Florida, they near ‘bout wore the bark off the palm trees. Ditto the pine trees in N.C. I’ll grant you that much of Florida is Deep South only in the geographic sense, but North Carolina has voted as “southern” as any place for a lot longer than I can remember. Even if Oby eventually comes up a ballot or two short there, I can at least summon up some reason to hope that future Democratic strategerians will take note of his campaign’s success in registering lots of new black voters in North Carolina and Florida and getting them to turn out, apparently without alienating an offsetting number of whites. Who knows? The Demo Brainstrust might even decide that Georgia is worth a few visits and a campaign ad or two in 2012. That said, I’m with ol’ Bo in betting that states like Alabama and Mississippi with fewer electoral votes and more white racial hardliners are still going to be wallflowers for quite spell.
The second comment I want to share is also from a learned friend and a genuine superstar of the blogosphere in his own right, JB3, who offers a fitting benediction for these proceedings by reminding us that before succumbing to the temptation to over-analyze what just happened, we should take time simply to appreciate it:
Oh Bloviator, My Bloviator, I hope your faithful readers will take the opportunity to, should Oby win, consider what a giant step for our country his win represents.
It is easy to dismiss all "those people" who are out voting for Obama. Getting out of "your" world for a minute, let's think about what an Obama victory would mean to the black community.
Consider the following:
If my father was black ---
At age 10, he was finally allowed to go to the same school (legally) as whites.
At age 11, he could ride in the front of the bus thanks to Madame Parks.
At age 20, he would not have had to pay a special Poll Tax to vote.
At age 21, he wouldn't have had to pass a special literacy test to vote.
Consider the impact of this discrimination on a young boy growing up during that era. You think you'd want to vote in this election?
Win or lose for your candidate, try to have some perspective about what a beautiful day tomorrow will be for so many people in our country.
Amen JB3, Amen.
