It’s been a big week for the Barackster, capped off with some really kick-ass wins in the Potomac primaries. He’s now the acknowledged leader in delegates and the Democrats’ proportional primary system makes it hard to gain ground unless you can just annihilate your opponent in several big primaries. While the Billarys stand to do well in Ohio and Texas, they don’t stand to do that well. The folks at RealClearPolitics.com show Oby with 1260 delegates at this point to Ms. C’s 1221. This means that, barring the release of photos of their opponent molesting a non-consenting farm animal, neither of them stands to collect the roughly three-fourths of the 1021 remaining pledged delegates needed to reach 2025 and win the nomination in the primaries. However, in order to overtake Obama and go into the convention as the leader the Billarys would have to capture more than 54 percent of the delegates from here on out. Obviously, every time Oby, who clearly has the “Big Mo” on his side, wins more of a state’s delegates than they do, the Billarys’ challenge gets stiffer. I have opined earlier that the Billarys would pick Oby clean in the backroom dealings with the unpledged Superdelegates, but it’s starting to look as though some of those folks might have their fingers to the wind—many of them are elected officials themselves and don’t want to be explaining why they didn’t go with the people’s choice—and may well resist the first Bubba’s entreaties and offers to share his little black book in exchange for their support of the Missus. It’s a fair bet that the recent departure of the Clinton camp’s top two people isn’t a sign that things are going swimmingly for them, and it does seem sometimes that the Clintonistas simply never anticipated that they would still be campaigning with anything really on the line at this point. It’s foolish to think that Oby won’t at least stump his toe sometime between here and June, but if he maintains his lead and enters the convention with the most delegates only to see Hillary leave the convention as the nominee, the Dems are almost certain to fall into what could well be debilitating disarray.
This is not to say that all is exactly sweetness and light over on the other side, of course. Living on Ramen noodles and Tic-Tacs and sleeping in his car, Pastor Mike is having a helluva good time exposing Johnny Mac’s serious problems with the snake-handling flat-worlders of the religious right. If the Huckster is angling to be the VP nominee or a cabinet member, he is definitely amassing leverage, but he is also seriously pissing off a man not particularly known for being even-tempered.* It’s hard to know how ol’ Huck would play as a VP candidate. He is certainly a better speaker and general all-around charmer than McCain, but he isn’t any more appealing to that pussel-gutted windbag Rush Limbaugh and his crowd than the presumptive nominee, and Huckabee’s “God-is-the pilot-I’m-just-along-for-the-ride” brand of theo-politics might not play so well with some of the Independents whose votes McCain needs to be elected. Say what you will about this campaign, there’s been no shortage of opportunities for second-guessing and micro-analysis. It hasn’t always been pretty, but it has damn sure been interesting.
*(Did you catch fellow Republican Senator Thad Cochran’s observation about his “friend” John McCain? Said Cochran: "The thought of his being president sends a cold chill down my spine. He is erratic. He is hotheaded. He loses his temper and he worries me." Cochran has endorsed Sen. Hothead, but I’m guessing he’ll be getting most of his campaign airplay this fall courtesy of the Dems.)
