Somewhere on the hard drive of a writer for the New York Times or The Nation or the like sits a draft of a hand-wringing article about the enduring racism that continues to dominate southern life. You could see it coming. The pundits on both the right and left were obsessed with the vast racial divide that the Billarys had supposedly opened within Democratic ranks, and a poll showed Obama with only 10 percent white support in South Carolina. Then, lo and behold, Obama actually captures 25 percent of the white vote in South Carolina, and yet another chance to hang America’s race problem around the South’s neck goes by the boards. (True to form, NPR did point out that Obama won “only” a quarter of the white vote in S.C.)
One of the more surprising exit poll stats to come out of the South Carolina vote was that Hillary got 29 percent of the white male vote while Obama got 27 percent. The big difference among white voters lay with women, who seem to have swung more strongly toward Sen. Clinton in the wake of a rather pointed question about her likeability posed during a post-Iowa debate and her almost-tearful episode in New Hampshire. In Florida, it appears that Ms. Clinton continued to ride that gender express, collecting 55 percent of the female vote compared to Obama’s 29 percent. (Obama appears to have done about as well among whites in Florida as he did in South Carolina.) Meanwhile, the New York chapter of NOW is condemning Sen. Ted Kennedy’s Monday endorsement of Barrack Obama (see below) as “the ultimate betrayal.” It’s worth noting, I’d say, that the media relishes talking about the racial divide but thus far won’t touch the gender divide with the proverbial ten-foot pole.
After enduring almost universal flagellation themselves for ol’ Bill’s somewhat racially suggestive flagellation of Obama in South Carolina, the Clintonistas appear to have reined him in at least temporarily. It would appear; however, that Bill’s antics may have contributed to the Kennedy clan’s decision to anoint Obama. This endorsement doubtless ticked the Billarys off big time, but how much it will really mean vote-wise is hard to gauge. I’m guessing a great many of the people who might be swayed positively by the recommendation of a bellowing, blimpoid Ted Kennedy were already leaning Obama-ward anyway.
If the polling data at this nifty site is to be taken seriously, the media impression that Clinton and Obama are running neck and neck for the nomination is something akin to wishful thinking. Hillary apparently holds substantial leads in all the big-ticket Super Tuesday states except her opponent's home state of Illinois, and unless Obama uncovers shots of Hillary doing something disgusting with Osama, she might well put some significant delegate distance between them next Tuesday. (The fallout from John Edwards’s withdrawal is difficult to gauge. He seems more likely to endorse Obama than Clinton, but it’s hard to know how throw-able a candidate’s support is these days. At most, Edwards’s departure is likely to matter only in states where the race is very close.) The prospect that Hillary is not necessarily “inevitable” again but may be “likely” raises the “What about Bill?” question, both for the general election campaign and a possible second Clintonista regime. Even in the primaries, Bill has had a hard time remembering that he’s not the candidate; so I doubt that will change just because Hillary wins the nomination.
Back in 1992, revelations of Bill’s sexual shenanigans were dubbed “spontaneous bimbo eruptions.” Sixteen years later, the bimbos are more likely botoxers than bobby-soxers, but it would be a reckless person indeed who’d bet that, for all his recent health problems, Bill’s immunity to monogamy isn’t still intact. If he has left his own special DNA-ridden version of the presidential seal anywhere it shouldn’t be, we are likely to hear of it early and often if he’s out campaigning to be first-hubby this fall. Moreover, should the Clintons return to the White House, he’ll be able to prowl his old haunts with nothing but time on his hands and lust in his heart.
The Republicans best chance to beat back the Billary assault appears to be John McCain, and more of them appear to be acknowledging as much. McCain nipped Romney in Florida in a race in which he could not count on the support of independents, but Romney still ran stronger among self-described conservatives. Here’s a stat for you. In Florida, Romney outpolled McCain 35 percent to 27 percent among those who described themselves as “enthusiastic” about the Bush presidency. Clearly, McCain has some work to do among the certifiably insane. It’s hard to say where or how far Romney goes from here. He made quite a surge in Florida, where he outspent McCain for advertising at about ten to one. The Florida win should give McCain a funding boost, but having already plunked down a reported $17 million of his own stash, how could Romney decide where to draw the line? If the Republican holdouts are indeed coming around, however grudgingly, on McCain, Romney is clearly toast. What he has accomplished with his own personally financed version of an economic stimulus policy is hard to gauge, although at this point, he does seem to be an exception to Kinky Friedman’s fundamental political maxim: “A fool and his money are soon elected.”